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The year in world affairs

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The year that is now elapsing has produced the usual mix of the good and the bad, the unexpected and the peculiar. In the last category, the presidency of Donald Trump in the U.S. takes the prize. For all of the wrong reasons, he totally dominated the news cycle in 2017.

In a few short months, Trump presented to the world a totally shambolic White House, with the resignations or firings of his nNational security advisor, his chief of staff, his director of communications, his principal spokesperson and his chief strategic advisor. He has publicly disagreed with his secretary of state and his secretary of defense. He has launched Twitter attacks on the leadership of his own Republican party in Congress. And he has made a variety of disparaging remarks about the judiciary, women politicians and even military veterans. In what was perhaps his greatest political blunder, he endorsed Roy Moore, a senatorial candidate from Alabama who had twice been removed from the bench for cause and who was the object of widespread accusations of sexual misconduct in his relations with teenage girls. When Moore was defeated, Trump was left looking not only tone-deaf, but stupid and ineffective.

If the rebuffs that trump suffered at the hands of Congress and the judiciary cast a long shadow over his domestic political agenda, it was in the realm of foreign policy that he really outdid himself. His decisions to withdraw the United States from the negotiations on the Trans-Pacific Partnership and from the Paris Climate Change agreement underlined his isolationist tendencies. So, too, did his threats to terminate the North American Free Trade Agreement. His diatribes against North Korea and Iran were rhetorically dangerous but achieved no useful result. His declaration that the United States would recognize Jerusalem as the capital of Israel and move its embassy there from Tel Aviv was perhaps the worst mistake of all. It put an end to any role the United States hoped to play in fostering a peace agreement between Israel and the Palestinians. It provoked hostility, protests and demonstrations throughout the Muslim world. It was met by strong objections from all of the members of the European Union. All in all, Trump’s foreign policy has managed in less than one year to alienate virtually all of America’s friends and allies around the world and to raise anti-Americanism to levels not seen since the U.S. invasion of Iraq in 2003.

Events in the Middle East were a distinctly mixed bag. The military defeat of the Islamic State (IS) in Iraq and Syria was widely welcomed, and for good reason. Its brutal repression of populations in both these countries was brought to an end, but it would be unwise to see this as the end of the affair. The IS will undoubtedly carry on as a subversive and terrorist movement posing a threat to the peoples of the Middle East and of the West. The IS has been defeated but not destroyed. Elsewhere in the region, the bloody civil wars in Syria and Yemen carried on apace, representing some of the worst humanitarian disasters that the world has seen in recent years. Both countries were the scene of the increasingly destructive competition between Iran and Saudi Arabia. If anything, the recent accession to power of a new Crown Prince in Saudi Arabia has had the effect of intensifying that conflict and spreading it further afield. When the increasingly autocratic government of Turkey and the long-festering Kurdish question are added to the mix, prospects for peace and stability in the Middle East seem as remote as ever.

In Asia, there were a number of disturbing developments. The brutal campaign of repression and ethnic cleansing mounted by the security forces of Myanmar against the Rohingya minority attracted worldwide attention. It did not, however, precipitate any effective international action to bring it to an end and to punish those responsible for the atrocities committed. It produced at most a humanitarian response to the needs of the 600,000 Rohingyas now living in squalid refugee camps in Bangladesh. Elsewhere in Asia, longer-term problems were largely ignored by the world media, because they were in many ways imperceptible. There is the rise of nationalism and nationalists in China, India and Japan. In all three countries, nationalists made significant gains in 2017. At the same time, Islamists were making headway in Indonesia and Malaysia. None of this bodes well for stability in the region in the years ahead.

In Europe, politics played some funny games in 2017. In Britain, the calamitous results of the Brexit referendum continued to dominate the headlines. Prime Minister Theresa May’s decision to call an early election, which produced unforeseen results, has only added to the political confusion. The Conservative Party is tearing itself apart and Mrs. May’s days in office seem likely to be numbered with no obvious successor in sight. And Britain’s exit negotiations with the European Union stagger on from crisis to crisis. On the other hand, politics took a distinct turn for the better in France with the unexpected success of Emmanuel Macron in the presidential election. His accession to office has spawned new confidence in France’s future, on the part of Frenchmen and outsiders alike. In Germany, the re-election of Chancellor Angela Merkel promised stability and continuity despite the difficulties she has experienced in forming a new coalition government. Political developments in both France and Germany have fostered great hopes that the European Union will be able to overcome some of its problems and emerge strengthened.

In Africa, the story remained grim. Violent and brutal civil wars continued to be the order of the day in many countries. The list includes Somalia, Libya, the Central African Republic, South Sudan and the Democratic Republic of the Congo. In Africa’s most populous country, Nigeria, the Islamist extremists of Boko Haram continue to wreak havoc. And even in the country that was held out to be the continent’s great hope, South Africa, things have gone from bad to worse. President Jacob Zuma has allowed his government to become a deep cesspool of corruption and the progenitor of political dysfunction. It would all be enough to make Nelson Mandela weep were he still alive. And, of course, a number of geriatric leaders have long outlived their usefulness in Algeria, Uganda, Cameroon and Congo-Brazzaville. The only bright spot on this front was the ouster in 2017 of the despicable Robert Mugabe in Zimbabwe, at age 93 and after nearly 40 years in power.

There were some genuinely good news stories in 2017. The outing of Hollywood’s serial sex predator Harvey Weinstein provoked an avalanche of revelations about other luminaries in the entertainment industry. Reputations and careers were struck low in one appalling case after another. Women suddenly felt empowered to come forward and tell their stories about sexual harassment and assault at the hands of previously unassailable men. From this the #MeToo movement was born and with it the hope that predatory sexual behaviour can sooner, rather than later, be consigned to the history books.

Another piece of general good news was the economic recovery experienced by most western countries. Rates of economic growth were up, unemployment was down and inflation remained tamed. In North America, stock markets hit record highs and business confidence was buoyant. And Canada registered the best rate of GDP growth among G7 countries. Only the British economy continued to stagnate due to the uncertainties created by the results of the Brexit referendum.

In Canada, the government of Prime Minister Justin Trudeau suffered some rough patches (e.g. Morneau, China), but for the most part carried on along sensible lines. In both domestic and foreign policy, it continued to distance itself from the inheritance of the Harper government to good effect. Even after two full years in office, the prime minister still enjoys a wide degree of popularity and political support. In this he has benefited from the less than stellar performances of the new leaders of the Conservative Party and of the New Democratic Party.

Late in the year, monarchists in Canada and throughout the Commonwealth were thrilled with the news that yet another royal wedding is in the offing. Prince Harry’s engagement to a once married and once divorced actress was greeted with glee. If only the late Princess Margaret were still around to reflect on how times have changed. And on this somewhat whimsical note, I wish all readers of the Whig-Standard a very happy, healthy and prosperous New Year.

Louis A. Delvoie is a Fellow in the Centre for International and Defence Policy at Queen’s University. 

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