Estimated Budgetary Effects of Public Law 119-21, to Provide for Reconciliation Pursuant to Title II of H. Con. Res. 14, Relative to CBO’s January 2025 Baseline

CBO estimates that Public Law 119-21 will result in a net increase in the unified budget deficit totaling $3.4 trillion over the 2025-2034 period, relative to CBO’s January 2025 baseline updated to reflect enacted legislation. That increase in the deficit is estimated to result from a decrease in direct spending of $1.1 trillion and a decrease in revenues of $4.5 trillion.

Some of those budgetary effects are associated with programs that are classified as off-budget. The increase in the on-budget deficit over that period is estimated at $3.4 trillion.